General Discussion

General DiscussionKeep playing Slark in random draft

Keep playing Slark in random draft in General Discussion
Na`Vi.Miracle-

    Playing it atm. Less that a .5% chance of getting him this often.

    You think it's random?

    arin

      where did you get that number or where am i wrong

      random draft = random 50 heroes from 110
      all possible combinations = C(50,110)
      all possible combinations with slark (or any hero) = C(49,109) (one slot is taken)

      chance that slark will be available to pick in one match = C(49,109)/C(50,110) = 5/11 = roughly 45,5%
      in 8 matches: (5/11)^8 = roughly 0.182%

      like yeah it's less that 0.5% but..

      Na`Vi.Miracle-

        .4545^7=.004
        I calculated the odds of getting any hero 8 times in a row, not the odds of getting Slark specifically 8 times.

        edit: but your math is all good :)

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        arin

          ^but that's the same?

          oh i was counting that last game too, so i went by ^8 not ^7
          alright carry on :horse:

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          Na`Vi.Miracle-

            The odds of getting Slark 8 times in a row is .182%
            The odds of getting any hero 8 times in a row is .4%

            arin

              ah, yeah. it took me a while but i get it now

              i didn't realise that when you calculate the odds of getting any hero n times in a row, you go by ^(n-1) since you don't care about first game because there's always some hero but you don't care which one so probability of having any hero is 100%

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              Luxon

                Odds of having any particular hero you choose from the first game in the next 7 ones is .4% .
                Odds of having any hero(es) in all 8 games is different.

                American Tragedy

                  how do you even count that? I don't get the idea..

                  arin

                    @Luxon
                    yeah, exactly

                    @American Tragedy
                    try to read this, i just skipped through it quickly but it seems like it covers all of the basics of combinatorics
                    https://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html

                    这回复被编辑过
                    Chaoshype

                      The odds aren't connected, it's not pseudo-random, it's actually random.
                      Which means every match, you've got equal chances of playing Slark.

                      PROTECTHIMFROMWHATHEWANTS

                        wtf are these numbers you guysssssssss
                        im ready to vomit

                        Arin best mathematician this world has ever fucking seen you guysssssssss

                        Na`Vi.Miracle-

                          Bout to play
                          Let's see what happens

                          Na`Vi.Miracle-

                            Just picked it again wtf
                            It can't be random...

                            Na`Vi.Miracle-

                              Again.

                              smol brain

                                ^Clever hack or black magic?

                                Na`Vi.Miracle-

                                  Anuthah one
                                  But no stats

                                  Na`Vi.Miracle-

                                    Black magic

                                    matrice

                                      The random of pick of valve isn't random.
                                      There's always been week where you were more likely to fall on a specific set of 5 heroes (when you random)

                                      And i guess they use the same kind of algorithm be it random, sd ar, rd or cd.

                                      For example, i randomed 5 times doom in a row (+2 time i repicked into doom).
                                      There were 98 heroes if i remember at that time (let's say 90 for the math)

                                      which make it 2 chance out 10^14 (or 0.000 000 000 002%).

                                      I mean it's not impossible for it to happen, but since i wasn't alone to see such non sense in random it's clearly impossible for that "random choice of heroes) to be random.

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                                      Riguma Borusu

                                        My friend randomed Kunkka twice in a row once, and that's all I know about "random is not really random".

                                        sayaka

                                          LUL

                                          mwsqz

                                            they should remvoe the possibility of rerolling heroes like tide/bm/brood, it'd avoid making ppl like me rq