where did you get that number or where am i wrong
random draft = random 50 heroes from 110
all possible combinations = C(50,110)
all possible combinations with slark (or any hero) = C(49,109) (one slot is taken)
chance that slark will be available to pick in one match = C(49,109)/C(50,110) = 5/11 = roughly 45,5%
in 8 matches: (5/11)^8 = roughly 0.182%
like yeah it's less that 0.5% but..
.4545^7=.004
I calculated the odds of getting any hero 8 times in a row, not the odds of getting Slark specifically 8 times.
edit: but your math is all good :)
^but that's the same?
oh i was counting that last game too, so i went by ^8 not ^7
alright carry on
The odds of getting Slark 8 times in a row is .182%
The odds of getting any hero 8 times in a row is .4%
ah, yeah. it took me a while but i get it now
i didn't realise that when you calculate the odds of getting any hero n times in a row, you go by ^(n-1) since you don't care about first game because there's always some hero but you don't care which one so probability of having any hero is 100%
Odds of having any particular hero you choose from the first game in the next 7 ones is .4% .
Odds of having any hero(es) in all 8 games is different.
@Luxon
yeah, exactly
@American Tragedy
try to read this, i just skipped through it quickly but it seems like it covers all of the basics of combinatorics
https://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html
The odds aren't connected, it's not pseudo-random, it's actually random.
Which means every match, you've got equal chances of playing Slark.
wtf are these numbers you guysssssssss
im ready to vomit
Arin best mathematician this world has ever fucking seen you guysssssssss
The random of pick of valve isn't random.
There's always been week where you were more likely to fall on a specific set of 5 heroes (when you random)
And i guess they use the same kind of algorithm be it random, sd ar, rd or cd.
For example, i randomed 5 times doom in a row (+2 time i repicked into doom).
There were 98 heroes if i remember at that time (let's say 90 for the math)
which make it 2 chance out 10^14 (or 0.000 000 000 002%).
I mean it's not impossible for it to happen, but since i wasn't alone to see such non sense in random it's clearly impossible for that "random choice of heroes) to be random.
My friend randomed Kunkka twice in a row once, and that's all I know about "random is not really random".
they should remvoe the possibility of rerolling heroes like tide/bm/brood, it'd avoid making ppl like me rq
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Playing it atm. Less that a .5% chance of getting him this often.
You think it's random?